Geo Strategic to Geo Economics

Pakistan is located in the area where major geo strategic transformation is taking place rapidly due to many factors involving NATO and its future plans, the QUAD India partnership in Indian Ocean Region (IOR), new emerging SCO bloc, Chinese led OBOR in which CPEC is the critical part and the rapidly magnifying independence movements in India. Moreover, the ongoing geo strategic challenges between GCC nations is an addition to the regional complexity which has impacted heavily on the region’s inter connectivity and the foreign policy. Due to these factors, it is clear that the region in which Pakistan is located, will be subject to many conflicts in coming future due to power struggle between different players and their subsequent economic and strategic interests.

The paradigm shift from Geo Strategic to Geo Economic domain is a gradual and steady process that requires systematic planning and high-level execution in will. Pakistan has a few very good options for such paradigm shift and one key option is inter-regional connectivity. Pakistani policy makers must focus on multi-pronged approach in order to boost economy and currency leveraging connectivity. Other option is focusing on agriculture reforms; since Pakistan is mainly an agricultural country the importance of land reforms cannot be ignored. A food and water self-sufficient Pakistan will be able to focus on other ingredients for progress. With improvement in the agriculture system and availability of water resources, the agriculture sector will become the backbone of the country’s economy and will contribute heavily towards achieving national and diplomatic objectives. We must not allow our agriculture lands to be diminished and residential societies occupy this huge potential, here a proper legislation is needed to stop such uncontrolled spread.

It is certain that the future geo economic activities are heavily linked with diversification of our strategic security structure in which Pakistan Navy has to play a vital role from securing our Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) to further safeguard Pakistan’s maritime trade.

Pakistan is sufficiently strong in terms of land-based forces with tactical weapon systems along with significant air power development. The success of the recent military operations and reversal of the enemy mainly in Swat, North/South Waziristan, insurgency affected areas of Balochistan and in urban Karachi has more than proved the capabilities of our intelligence services and combat forces. The only area where Pakistan needs to pay utmost attention is the naval power development. As I have said before in my previous articles that a country’s status and stature are reflected by its sea power, and without a strong navy, Pakistan cannot aspire to occupy its rightful place in the comity of nations.

Pakistan’s naval challenges are enormous due to the fact that Pakistan Navy was an ignored force for many decades along with absence of role clarity. Pakistan inherited an arch rival India which has grand ambitions to demonstrate her hegemony in South Asia and beyond and is expanding her naval power significantly. Pakistan is building a vast network of road and power infrastructure through OBOR with help of China and a reliable powerful Navy is essential to sustain the uninterrupted trade activities. In order to meet with these challenges, a number of steps have been taken and there is a great sense of realization amongst our leadership to strengthen naval power.

Pakistan’s EEZ is 240,000 Sq Km, with continental shelf extending a further 50,000 sq km. The area is rich in fishery, possibly hydrocarbons and other seabed resources and Pakistan aspires to leverage the EEZ for socio economic development. It is therefore in Pakistan’s interest to see that the environment at sea is secure and stable to pursue legitimate interests unimpeded.

Under the OBOR Vision which adds new economic and strategic dimensions to the above-mentioned challenges, the strengthening ties between Pakistan and China through CPEC is also another dimension because China wants to safeguard its oil supply from the Middle East that was passing mainly through the Strait of Malacca which is under Allied influence and can come under naval blockade in case of any high-level tensions between US and China. So the geo-political importance of CPEC is a critical factor for future Chinese engagement with Maritime security in the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean along with Pakistan Navy. We must always keep in mind if we somehow lack in defending our own EEZ and its related interests, then “others” will do it and we will be at the losing end but I am glad that the current naval leadership is aware of these challenges.

Pakistan Navy has covered a long distance since its creation and has experienced significant naval warfare exposure in previous Indo-Pakistan wars, participating in war drills and leading multi-national task forces. The size of the navy and its specific role amongst the inter services defence beauracracy however is still an area of discussion although many milestones have been achieved in the past few years specially and in the past decade generally – CPEC itself dictates a big role for Pakistan Navy. The challenge here for Pakistan Navy is to change the traditional mind set of the defence establishment which is heavily based upon a land based approach.

Seeing Pakistan’s land border situation and hostility amongst its immediate neighbors, this land based approach might prevail for a longer period of time, however, the new paradigm change as a result of connectivity related activities and Chinese access to the Arabian Sea is the key element to elaborate internally with the defence establishment for the sake of significant resources allocation. One has to keep in mind, the CPEC trade route will be only be safe guarded if a power full navy stands behind it. Handling this paradigm shift, the Pakistan military establishment must realize the importance of having a multi-lateral approach by utilizing and effectively employing tri-services strategy for economical and maritime trade protection purposes. Having mentioned the above scenario, my intention is to elaborate that those nations with strong economic growth and military strength will eventually sustain the aftermath of the said ongoing regional and global power struggle.

In Pakistan’s 290,000 Sq. Km area of maritime influence, sea food is a precious resource where our fish production in the marine sector, extending up to 35 nautical miles from the coast, is nearly 70 percent while the remaining 30 percent is obtained from inland sector. There is no reliable data on the quantum of fish resource beyond the 35 nautical miles limit in the EEZ which is routinely transgressed by fishing trawlers from other countries. Pakistan is losing precious economic opportunities due to the absence of reliable fishery data across its EEZ and extended shelf. The trespassers which are heavily equipped with latest technology for fish processing are taking huge benefit due to this capability gap. These trespassers are from various countries in the region and beyond where the fish industry is well modernized and established. Pakistan’s Maritime Security Agency (MSA) frequently apprehends Indian fishermen who intrude into Pakistani waters but its reach and capacity against bigger offenders operating further south of the coast is severely constrained. MSA does not have sufficient air surveillance assets to monitor the activities in EEZ, nor does it have enough surface vessel resources to effectively police the area once intruders have been reported. The Ministry of Shipping and Ports along with the Ministry of Defence and Interior must develop an aggressive plan to tackle such challenges.

One of the challenges we may have to encounter is the large scale navigation within our EEZ by navies of different world superpowers. They operate in a way that they don’t necessarily follow and respect the UN assigned area of maritime influence of a country and often intentionally trespass the area of that country’s territorial maritime jurisdiction. For example, the United States has not ratified the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, which is codified in a treaty the longstanding principle of freedom of navigation. Recently Retired Admiral James Stavridis who is also Managing Director of the Global Investment firm, the Carlyle Group mentioned in an article (Global Fish Wars) that illegal fishing may cause a global war and Congress has asked its Navy to help fight illegal fishing.

Another recently developed factor is the Saudi led Islamic bloc to fight terrorism. The Islamic Military Counter Terrorism coalition (IMTcT) is an intergovernmental alliance meant to counter terrorist activities in the Muslim world, specifically military action against ISIL/ISIS. The alliance has a joint operations center in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. On 6 January 2017, Pakistan’s former Chief of Army Staff, General (Retd) Raheel Sharif was named the IMa’s first commander-in chief. Pakistan can leverage this stature by asking for naval logistic support from countries that are part of this alliance, for instance UAE is utilizing Socotra Island as its naval logistic station and Pakistan can do the same. Only aggressive and effective diplomacy along with strong resolve from our political and military establishment is required.

I do not know if anyone from our hierarchy has discussed this with friendly countries but if such naval logistic agreements are being arranged, the Pakistan Navy could use islands in the Arabian Sea such as Socotra and its adjacent smaller Islands like Darsah, Kilmia and Samhah, Red Sea Islands under Saudi control, Gulf Oman Islands like Almassirah, Khuriya Muriya Islands like alQibliah, Alhallaniyah and Alsawda, Bosas in Somalia and port Sudan in the Red Sea. We can also aggressively leverage our friendship with Turkey that has plans to establish military bases in Somalia, Qatar and in some other regional countries. We can get logistic support from those Turkish military stations in order to fulfill our Sea control vision at extended EEZ. Turkey has also great deal of influence in the Mediterranean Sea and Pakistan should get involved in that part of the world for supporting joint operations.

A country’s status and stature are reflected by its sea power and without a strong navy Pakistan cannot aspire to occupy its rightful place in the comity of nations. Sea power is not simply about what it takes to use the sea; it is also the capacity to influence the behavior of other people or things by what one does at or from the sea. Leveraging from sea power requires two components: the means to use the sea as it desires, and freedom of doing things that are considered necessary to influence the actions of people on land. The classic constituents of sea power have not changed despite the rapid progression of technology and, when addressed, would eventually make Pakistan not only a naval power but a maritime power if the naval role would be clarified and enough resources would be allocated.

The area of Pakistan’s dominion of interest is going through rapid navigational transformation and we see presence of large number of world navies in the Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea. Dealing with such massive traffic adjacent to our extended EEZ in addition to CPEC related interests, utmost attention and superior planning is required for keeping our close eyes on ambitions and activities of adversaries. Also, we observe the gradual build up of Iranian and Saudi Navies in North Arabian Sea that could result in an additional pain point for Pakistan as far as diplomacy is concerned. All said challenges along with new emerging Indian Coast Guard threat require the Pakistan Navy to adopt multi-pronged approach for an immediate naval size increase by at least doubling the submarines and destroyers, acquiring more helicopter carriers, dedicated airborne early warning aircrafts, developing capability to use the Sea commercially in peace and command/control in times of war, strengthening naval cooperation with Chinse and regional friendly navies and developing the navy’s new role in combined operations with the army. In modern naval warfare, the combined and enlarged role of long-range fighter aircrafts with refueling capability and nuclear submarines could be a decisive factor for the sustainability of the operations in near and distant seas. Pakistan must move quickly in the next 3 to 4 years for meeting these challenges head on and evolve ambitious political and naval leadership for the development of sea power to transform the Pakistan Navy into a blue water navy in the near or distant future. Lastly, Pakistan has to diversify its coastal line ports for commercial and war management purposes. In this regard, Khor Kalmat lagoon is considered as the favorable location from a strategic standpoint. The addition of another naval base at Pakistan’s 1100 km long coastal line will help load management and diversification of the maritime resources for commercial and strategic purposes.

A strong economic model is the fundamental pre-requisite for laying out an effective foreign policy. Pakistan has many levers to play around for an effective economic model like military hardware development, Tourism, CPEC passage Tax and infrastructure, agriculture exports, sports-based sector and development of skilled manpower. These levers can be well managed and certainly will give positive results if educated and honest leadership emerges at all levels amongst our society. Pakistan can also share experiences & lessons learnt on the war against terrorism and it can be a good image building tool for Pakistan. The fundamental point here is Pakistan cannot build a successful economic model unless developments in human sector like education and health occur. Basic health and education are the key for building a healthy society that eventually will help building a strong economy. An educated and healthy society will effectively contribute towards building all spheres of economic domains that can be raised up for economic model development. Another area that may be developed is the regional connectivity is CPEC which is just one example. Another example is Turkey-Iran-Pakistan economic corridor (TIPEC). A highway already exists between Pakistan Iran and Turkey by the name of RCD Highway. If this RCD highway somehow could be upgraded, then another corridor could be made available that will connect Caucasus countries from Caspian Sea to CPEC highways. This will be an additional revenue generation project for Pakistan having unique diplomatic and financial benefits. This TIPEC corridor will additionally connect most of the SCO member countries with further linkage to CPEC and Gwadar port to all the way up to Western China.

The bold economic steps cannot be executed without a strong will from the leadership. Nations having weak leadership are either dominated by others or are always on the mercy of others asking for help, history tells us everything about them. Many examples can be given like US, UK, China, Singapore, Turkey, Malaysia etc. where leadership turned the tables around. Pakistan needs a strong leadership from every sector of our society. Unfortunately, the best brains go out of the country due to a corrupt political system and policies, leaving behind a huge gap that eventually is filled by mediocre and low educated workforce. The level of corrupt practices is so deep that many patriotic Pakistanis tried to come back and disappointed by corrupt system lost hope. The corrupt system must be changed, and corrupt elites must be punished. This is the absolute and correct cure for advancement towards a healthy society and creating a sustainable economic model that would eventually help build an effective foreign policy.

I can humbly request all political stake holders to sit together and agree on an economic agenda. So, for moving Pakistan’s economy it is of utmost importance to develop an agreed economic agenda and execute it without wishing for political gains. In the foreign policy domain, it is critical to adopt such an approach to reap benefits of both blocs via balanced policy and not tilting unnecessarily keeping in mind economic and strategic interests. One hopes for political harmony in Pakistan because this is the only way forward along with an agreement on a minimum agenda that must involve a greater consensus on improving Pakistan’s economy.

By Hafiz Anees –

by Anees Hafiz ~ The Writer is an engineering management professional and the Author of Pakistan`s Defence & Nuclear Doctrine

This article was Published on 10th November 2022 in DEFENCE JOURNAL https://defencejournal.com/2022/11/10/geo-strategic-to-geo-economics/