Drawing the Fault Lines

Brief strategic overview.

The recent developments in the global and regional arena are troublesome and dangerous that require careful attention from our policy makers how to maneuver Pakistan’s foreign policy and military strategy from strategic positioning standpoint. I am talking about the Israel – Palestine conflict in the Middle East where the scenario is worrisome in many ways, geo political, religious and economic reasons. The horrific pictures coming from Palestine indicate the seriousness of the problem and its potential escalation to a full-scale war that may well end up converting into a Third World War. More than 4,600 Palestinians have lost their lives in Israeli attacks on Gaza, while over 1,400 people have been killed in Israel since October 7 as per media reports. The maneuvering of the world powers’ naval fleet in the Mediterranean, Red Sea and Gulf of Aqaba indicates dangerous liaisons under the current tense environment. 

Diplomatically, the Pakistan government has taken clear stance and sided with the Palestinians in this crucial moment, declaring it as war crimes, but the fact of the matter is that the collateral damage suffered by the Palestinians is unimaginable. The regional instability caused by the Russo Ukrainian war has tripled due to the war in Gaza and this could unleash certain sensitive factors that could lead to a possible long-term conflict in this region. Similarly, Turkey has more or less the same official stance on Gaza situation as Pakistan.

Pakistan has to play it smart in such challenging circumstances due to challenges from India, terrorism from TTP and BLA using Afghan soil and CPEC related security matters that need to be take care of as soon as possible. First and foremost, Pakistan must be self-sufficient and self-reliant on defence related matters and must build the military equipment industry as the backbone of the country’s economy. We can plan/reform in long terms for other commercial sectors but due to challenges and shortness of time, it is imperative to boost the military equipment related economic plan (SIFC) for bridging the vast foreign exchange gap. A strong and prosperous Pakistan will definitely be able to play a bigger role as and when the time arrives in the near or distant future.

The second milestone is to build a strong regional Muslim led military bloc that could initially start from Pakistan, Turkey, and Azerbaijan. This bloc already flexed muscles during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict resulting in liberation from Armenia. Saudi Arabia and Qatar can be added in this bloc if the situation and tension escalates that high due to the Israel- Palestinian conflict. Keeping in mind stretch of this bloc, as per my view, the area of influence or dominion of Pakistan’s interest must be from the Arabian Sea, Persian Gulf, Red Sea, Gulf of Aqaba, Mediterranean Sea, and the Black Sea. Some additional details are mentioned in below section.

Pakistan’s Dominion of Influence (Land & High Seas)

The Islamic coalition military alliance has a Joint Operations Center in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. On 6 January 2017, Pakistan‘s former Chief of Army Staff, General (retd) Raheel Sharif was named the ICMA’s first commander-in chief. Pakistan can leverage this stature by asking for naval logistic support from countries that are part of this alliance, for instance the UAE is utilizing Socotra Island as its naval logistic station and Pakistan can do the same. Only aggressive and effective diplomacy along with strong resolve from our political and military establishment is required. 

I have no idea whether anyone from Pakistan’s hierarchy has discussed this with friendly countries but if such naval logistic agreements are being arranged (or could be arranged), the Pakistan Navy could use islands in the Arabian Sea such as Socotra and its adjacent smaller Islands like Darsah, Kilmia and Samhah, the Red Sea Islands under Saudi control, Gulf of Oman Islands like Almassirah, Khuriya Muriya Islands like alQibliah, Alhallaniyah and Alsawda, Bosas in Somalia and Port Sudan in the Red Sea. We can also aggressively leverage our friendship with Turkey that has plans to establish military bases in Somalia, Qatar and in some other regional countries. We can get logistic support from those Turkish military stations in order to fulfill our Sea control vision at extended Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Turkey also has great influence in the Mediterranean Sea and Pakistan should get involved in that part of the world for supporting joint operations.

Emphasizing on what I have said, a country’s status and stature are reflected by its sea power, and without a strong navy Pakistan cannot aspire to occupy its rightful place in the comity of nations. Sea power is not simply about what it takes to use the sea; it is also the capacity to influence the behavior of other people or things by what one does at or from the sea. Leveraging from sea power requires two components: the means to use the sea as it desires, and freedom of doing things that are considered necessary to influence the actions of people on land. The classic constituents of sea power have not changed despite the rapid progression of technology and, when addressed, would eventually make Pakistan not only a naval power but a maritime power if the naval role would be clarified and enough resources would be allocated. 

The area of Pakistan’s dominion of interest is going through rapid navigational transformation and we see the presence of large number of world navies in the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea. Dealing with such massive traffic adjacent to our extended EEZ in addition to CPEC related interests, utmost attention and best planning is required for keeping a close eye on ambitions and activities of our adversaries. Also, we can observe the gradual buildup of Iranian and Saudi navies in the North Arabian Sea that could result in an additional pain point for Pakistan as far as diplomacy is concerned. All said challenges along with the new emerging Indian Coast Guard threat require the Pakistan Navy to adopt multi-pronged approach for an immediate naval size increase by doubling the submarines and destroyers, acquiring a couple of helicopter carriers, dedicated airborne early warning aircrafts, developing capability to use the Sea commercially in peace and command/control in war times, strengthening our naval cooperation with the Chinese and other regional friendly navies and developing our navy’s new role in combined operations with the Army. In modern naval warfare, the combined and enlarged role of long range fighter aircrafts with refueling capability and nuclear submarines could be a decisive factor for the sustainability of the operations in near and distant Seas. Pakistan must move quickly in the next 3 to 4 years for meeting these challenges and evolve ambitious political and naval leadership for the development of sea power that could plan the way in advance to transform Pakistan Navy in to a blue water navy in the near or distant future. Lastly, Pakistan has to diversify its coastal line ports for commercial and war management purposes. In this regard, Khor Kalmat Lagoon is considered as the favorable location from a strategic standpoint. The addition of another naval base at Pakistan’s 1100 km long coastal line will help load management and diversification of the maritime resources for commercial and strategic purposes.

Handling Indian Plans in the region

There are certain deliberate attempts from the western bloc to pursue their containment of China policy in order to carry over the world’s dominancy status for the current century. Since it is visible that China is trying to emerge as a global power by presenting herself as an alternate to the current western hegemony, the western bloc along with its allies leveraging the geographical advantages, trying to limit the Chinese rise, one example is the possible blockade in South China Sea that is a vital sea trade route for China. China cannot emerge as a superpower without trade with the rest of the world and the only trading route is via South China Sea which is under the influence of western bloc. Any advancement in blocking or obstructing the Chinese sea route will result in a catastrophic warlike situation that could lead to a bigger war theatre. 

Other than the ongoing encirclement of China in the South China Sea by western bloc, other significant developments indicate towards a possible conflict in the region including India-China skirmishes in various parts of the “Chicken Neck Corridor”, and the ongoing Chinese conflict with India in Ladakh. India is now in direct eyeball-to-eyeball situation with the Chinese People’s Liberation Army and is encouraged by other stake holders in the bloc to start a limited two front war thus giving an opportunity for imposing blockade in the Strait of Malacca. India is a bit hesitant to do this hot pursuit since its Chicken Neck Corridor is directly under the threat of Chinese invasion whereby India could lose seven eastern states and other areas in the Himalayan region as a result of any direct collision with China. India will also try to engage Pakistan in a limited war, which seems pretty evident seeing the recent Indian war preps. Pakistan and China are developing CPEC which will provide an alternate route to western part of China in case of a naval blockade in the South China Sea. The Western bloc has developed the South China Sea Doctrine after decades of maneuvering and having an oxygen for Chinese trade through CPEC would be tough to digest. So, the development of China Pakistan Economic Corridor is one important factor in the emerging war arena. 

If we see the regional strategic landscape, India is trying at various levels to set up a foot hold around Pakistan’s area of common interest. An example is Indian past investments in Afghanistan and Iran along with other hidden plans against Pakistan using 5^th generation proxies. We must always keep in mind that Pakistan is like a strong strategic balancer that is preventing Indian expansion westward because there is no other way India can expand except the west. Similarly, India is trying its utmost to control naval passageways from UAE to Oman through various influential means. The huge economic interests of the Gulf countries in India are facilitating the fulfillment of Indian ambitions so it seems that India is trying to encircle Pakistan from every side possible along with heavy naval build up to contain Pakistan’s trade. 

Pakistan is a nuclear power, so we must display our muscles wherever and whenever required. We must adopt little bit bossy attitude if such a situation arrives and we must forget an apologetic attitude. Many countries have defence or semi defence pacts with Pakistan, so we can leverage these opportunities for boosting many sectors for betterment. Pakistan must work aggressively for getting military access to IOR and North Arabian Sea Islands from Yemen, Somalia, Maldives, Oman, Sri Lanka and Brunei. A lot needs to be done in this domain. 

Leveraging SCO Membership & CPEC – Powerful Tools for Foreign policy maneuvering:

Pakistan’s foreign policy is always influenced by western oriented thinking with strong interaction with NATO. Many historical examples can be given like the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan but the incident after 9/11 and consequent events compelled Pakistan to rethink its global engagement as far as dealing with big powers is concerned. The opportunity came through the Gwadar Port and CPEC that opened the doors for another power axis that is China and Russia. Moreover, Pakistan became a full SCO member recently giving a clear indication to the western bloc that Islamabad is responding to a strategic paradigm shift due to consequence of war on terror and unilateral expansionism. This club has been the potential center for regional geopolitics as well as economic wellbeing under OBOR where Pakistan has the key status due to its flagship, the CPEC project. This bloc has huge potential to extend CPEC scope into Central Asian States, the Caucasus and deep into Russia. If Iran is added, it could involve the Caspian potential. The challenge is to benefit from such a power bloc into our economic wellbeing and geo-strategic gains for example like the Kashmir issue. The challenge here is how to maintain fair relations with NATO countries, especially the United States – this enormous challenge requires an aggressive foreign policy and a very well-motivated Foreign Office staff. The successful caliber in foreign policy terms is to keep relations with both blocs but having a predominant tilt towards the region. NATO and western countries have a lesser economic stake in Pakistan rather than expansionism. On the other hand, China is there with its full economic agenda. The best practice will be to use the pros and cons of both rival blocs and use them in the best interests of Pakistan. Also keep in mind that fair practices and stand on principles will be the ultimate strength in the diplomacy world.

Pakistan – Turkey Strategic Alignment:

Pakistan must leverage Turkey and its influence as a vital and fundamental tool of its foreign policy. Turkish – Pakistan military and naval alliance and strategic partnership can be a rock-solid element in multiple domains keeping in mind situation with India in IOR, Kashmir and on diplomatic fronts as far as Arab middle east politics is concerned.

I am totally convinced that Turkey is one of the friendly countries that will come to support Pakistan in its time of need. Pakistan has many tools and maneuvers in all aspects, and alignment with Turkey should be another strategic maneuver that will be beneficial not only for both countries but also for regional stability. Turkey has influence on many countries and Pakistan can leverage such influence with close strategic and diplomatic alignment. The joint Pakistan-Turkish Partnership will serve as a strong strategic power balancer for the Middle East and IOR. Elaborating further, Turkey has expansion plans to promote its influence keeping in mind the historical Ottoman Empire factor, so Pakistan must help Turkey in this domain. The strategic goals of Turkey will always merge with Pakistan’s interest one way or another. The joint development of military hardware, research and development and economic investment on each other’s side will help boost relations and partnership between these two brotherly countries. The diplomatic stance of Turkey on Kashmir is always in favor of Pakistan. Pakistan needs to boost aggressive economic advances in order to fully leverage from SCO membership at all levels, including bridging between SCO and Turkey. Due to the SCO status, Russia is not an Indian ally any more in the sense observed in the past. The economic revival and boosting trade with Turkey through Iran can be one great step in this regard since we already have the Regional Cooperation Development (RCD) agreement between Pakistan, Iran and Turkey. This can become another corridor (Turkey, Iran, Pakistan Economic Corridor – TIPEC) and can be linked with CPEC. In this way, Eurasian opportunities will be merged with benefits of CPEC related trade. 

Pakistan is a nuclear power, so we must show our muscles wherever and whenever required. Many countries have defence or semi defence pacts with Pakistan, so we can leverage these opportunities for boosting many sectors for betterment. For example, Pakistan is taking active part in the 34-nations Saudi led Military Alliance. We can use this platform for selling military equipment, improving bilateral relations for trade, visa on arrival agreements, military training and other giant economic deals. Pakistan must work aggressively for getting military access to IOR and North Arabian Sea Islands from Yemen, Somalia, Maldives, Oman, Sri Lanka, and Brunei. If Turkey and Pakistan join hands for development of such a strong bloc, many Muslim countries will surely follow and that will be the beginning of the fault lines that should exist in case any escalation takes place in the Middle East or in our dominion of influence. 

In the current Middle East crisis situation, Turkish Air Force Commander General Ziya Cemal Kadıoğlu paid an official visit to Pakistan from 17 to 20 October 2023. The General who met with Pakistan Air Force Commander ACM Zaheer Ahmed Baber, later participated in the Distinguished Observer Day activities of the “Indus Shield-2023 Exercise”, in which the planes of Turkish Air Force Command also participated.

Concluding Remarks: 

Pakistan must develop a mixed blend of economic model that covers military hardware sale, tourism, agriculture, and regional connectivity projects for revenue generation. Pakistan has a strong military establishment and solid defence related infrastructure along with an effective nuclear deterrence, so we must leverage this aspect for immediate commercial gains. A big lesson from the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and now the Israel-Palestine conflict is that a weak nation cannot sustain for long and no one comes to help in tough times if the country is weak in multi-dimensional domains. We must be proud of our strong Pakistan Army and Intelligence services that are guardians of the nation.

From my point of view, some areas to focus on are listed below in order to speed up the rise of Pakistan Naval power that could safe guard huge EEZ and CPEC related trade and economic activities across the territorial water and strategic maritime dominion of interest. The focus on these areas will help build up Pakistan’s capacity to maneuver in the Dominion of Interest from Gwadar and Karachi to Istanbul and the Black Sea. 

1. Double the Naval budget from current level.

2. Double the size of submarines and destroyers gradually in next 3 to 4 years.

3. Develop strategy for employing helicopter carriers which seem to be feasible instead of acquiring traditional carrier with fighter jets. This will help boost operational capabilities. A Heli carrier and or a regular carrier can be developed at our naval shipyard.

4. Acquire nuclear submarines for maintaining longer operational sustainability

5. Modernization of shipyards and destroyers manufacturing via Joint ventures.

6. Effective local repair capabilities in-house for maritime inventory.

7. Modernization of second-strike capability utilizing submarines.

8. Massive improvement in naval aviation for supporting longer maritime operations

9. Agreements with friendly nations for using strategic islands in Arabian Sea. Again, Pakistan-Turkish collaboration will help in this domain.

10. Pakistan Navy should adopt long term strategy to take shape as a powerful

11. standing blue navy during next decade.